Biden's deeper amnesia

Will Democratic voters remember the Biden who promised to champion human rights or the one who has applied that pledge selectively?

President Joe Biden's memory lapses about the president of Mexico may have become fodder for late-night banter, but his selective memory on human rights is no laughing matter.

That lapse isn't just a faux pas; it symbolizes a Freudian slip into his administration's deeper amnesia: forgetting the core values and lofty human rights promises Biden brought into office.

Biden, who presented himself as a crusader for human rights and made democracy promotion a key element of his foreign policy, now seems out of step with his party's progressive beat. His unconditional support for Israel, despite the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, suggests a disconnect between his administration's actions and its base's evolving priorities.

The Democratic Party is undergoing a seismic transformation, becoming increasingly diverse and vocal in its demand for foreign policy that reflects its values on human rights and equity. This isn't merely a discordant note. It’s both a generational and a paradigm shift in the party's foreign policy doctrine, with Biden seemingly having lost track of the memo.

The administration's stance on Gaza has exposed a rift within the Democratic Party, threatening the coalition that secured Biden's victory in 2020. In Michigan, the "Abandon Biden" movement among Arab Americans highlights profound disillusionment, reflecting a nationwide crisis of confidence across key segments of the Democratic base: young voters, Blacks, progressives, and left-leaning Jewish Americans.

“Michigan is more than a symptom,” former Democratic congressman Andy Levin of Michigan tells me. “If Biden doesn't change course, I am deeply worried that he will lose Michigan, and we may lose the whole election.”

A staunch supporter of Israel, who also advocated for Palestinian rights while in office, Levin tried to shift his colleagues to what he called a “new center of gravity” that balanced U.S. commitment to Israel’s security with efforts to end the West Bank occupation. He proposed legislation to restrict how Israel uses U.S. military aid, to prevent its use in upholding the occupation.

Levin believes Biden’s policy on Gaza reflects not just a Democratic disagreement or bad poll numbers, but a “deep bone feeling” voters have about the issue.

“They're watching people being slaughtered, and 70% of those who've died are women and children,” he says. “People are horrified, and we can't afford for them to sit out the election.”

Biden did send top advisers to Michigan this week to meet with Arab American leaders, after earlier outreach by his campaign aides was rebuffed as campaign politics.

Voters tend to have short memories when it comes to foreign policy. Biden treating human rights as a secondary concern isn't new. His chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, which abandoned thousands of Afghans and led to fresh rights violations by the Taliban, especially against women and religious minorities, damaged Biden's approval ratings for months, yet today Afghanistan is rarely mentioned in Democratic political discourse.

But the war in Gaza has prompted a visceral reaction from the American public unlike any conflict in recent memory. Since October 7, polls have shown widespread disapproval of Biden's handling of the conflict, especially among young voters critical of Israel's actions.

The party's younger, more progressive base views foreign policy through a human rights and equity lens and challenges unconditional U.S. support for Israel, influencing perspectives across the country, on college campuses, and at Biden’s campaign stops. His Gaza policy isn’t just alienating a key demographic but reinforcing the narrative that he is a relic of a bygone era.

Recent comments from Biden describing Israel's military response to the Hamas attack on October 7 as "over the top" could signal a shift towards a more balanced approach, although his aides were quick to say that the policy remained unchanged.

Last week, the president signed a directive to sanction extremist settlers. And this week, there is a new memorandum by the United States, conditioning military aid on "credible and reliable written assurances" of adherence to international law.

While not explicitly targeting Israel, the memo’s policy implications for Israel's military operations in Gaza are unmistakable. It begs the question: Are these efforts to prevent an Israeli advance on Rafah, where the majority of Palestinians in Gaza have gone to escape the fighting? Or are these strategic maneuvers to appease growing dissent within his party? The answer will lie in the administration's willingness to apply these standards uniformly, including to strategic allies like Israel.

Democrats say their criticism isn’t about comparing Biden’s record to Trump’s, but rather judging the President by his own high standards. Biden’s foreign policy decisions have indelibly shaped his character in the eyes of many. As the 2024 election looms, it remains to be seen whether voters will remember the Biden who promised to champion human rights or the one who applies that pledge selectively. Those who remember the latter may decide to stay home from the polls, which is Andy Levin’s biggest fear.

“You can't escape this through politics; it has to be through policy,” he says.

Levin believes Biden can recover if he pushes Israel to end the war and its occupation of Palestinians and leads a genuine international effort towards a two-state solution - a task every American president has attempted and failed.

Biden’s legacy and electoral prospects may depend on his ability to recognize and adapt to the foreign policy paradigm shift within his party. Failure to do so could be the swan song of his political career.