First, as they say… some housekeeping: Don't forget to join
and me today at 5:30p ET/2:30 PT for a special edition of Hot Takes Happy Hour. We're drilling into the hard realities of how the administration’s early moves are reshaping America's global footprint. Whether you're toasting these changes or drowning your sorrows, this conversation deserves a proper drink alongside it. Hope to see you there.
And now….democracy in America. Yet another reason for imbibing.
What does it mean when a scholar who's spent his career diagnosing democratic collapse abroad now turns his analytical lens toward America and doesn't like what he sees?
If Larry Diamond is worried, we should all be paying attention. And Larry Diamond is very worried.
"A rapid slide to authoritarianism" – that's how Diamond characterizes America's current trajectory. Coming from virtually anyone else, this might sound like partisan hyperbole. Coming from the Stanford professor who literally wrote the book on democratic transitions, it lands differently.
For five decades, Diamond has been democracy's clinical diagnostician, meticulously cataloging its symptoms of health and disease across continents. I first met him in 2006, while I was covering the spiraling violence in Iraq and wondering whether the country was descending into civil war. I reached out to Larry at Stanford University and haven't stopped seeking his counsel since then. When the man who warned of a "global democratic recession" twenty years before it became conventional wisdom tells you your own democracy is failing, it's like having the world's top oncologist examine your scan and grimace.
The parallels Diamond draws between America and places like Turkey, Hungary, and Venezuela aren't just academic musings – they're red alerts. Schedule F, in which the Trump administration wants to make the majority of administration officials political appointees who serve at the pleasure of the president, isn't merely an administrative reshuffling; it's a playbook for gutting the professional civil service that Diamond has seen deployed by aspiring autocrats from Ankara to Caracas. Similar moves also preceded democratic collapse in Poland and Hungary.
What's most alarming isn't just the content of these changes but their velocity. Democratic backsliding typically occurs through what scholars call "the politics of the fait accompli" – move fast, create new realities on the ground, and watch institutional resistance crumble under the sheer weight of accumulated changes. We're witnessing this playbook unfold in real-time.
The courts remain the last institutional bulwark, issuing injunction after injunction against various executive actions. But Diamond sees vulnerabilities here too. The Supreme Court's expansive view of presidential immunity signals it may not serve as the constitutional firewall many had hoped. As for Congress? Republican lawmakers who privately admit their horror at what's unfolding publicly fall in line – a pattern of elite capitulation Diamond has documented in democratic backsliding worldwide.
"Fear now stalks the land," Diamond wrote recently – not the kind of clinical language you'd expect from a social scientist. But Diamond isn't being hyperbolic; he's diagnosing the most visceral symptom of democracy in distress.
Yet we can't ignore an uncomfortable truth: half the country voted for this agenda. Many Americans, exhausted by partisan gridlock and economic anxiety, have embraced what they see as decisive leadership that "gets things done." The desire for a strongman who can cut through democratic deliberation's messy constraints isn't unique to America – similar patterns have emerged globally – but its manifestation in the world's oldest constitutional democracy represents a profound shift in our political culture.
In his recent essays in Persuasion, Diamond has moved beyond diagnosis to prescription, outlining strategies for democratic resistance. He emphasizes the need for multi-front opposition from courts, civil society, universities, media, businesses, and concerned citizens. He points to Poland as evidence that democratic recovery is possible, where opposition parties united to defeat the ruling Law and Justice Party.
What's at stake isn't just one administration or even one political cycle – it's the constitutional order itself. When Diamond looks at America today, he sees the same institutional erosion, the same challenging of norms, the same consolidation of executive power that has preceded democratic collapse elsewhere. The question isn't whether America is exceptional enough to resist these forces – it's whether Americans are exceptional enough to recognize and counteract them.
In our conversation, Diamond spoke about his conviction that America's democratic crisis is truly comparable to what he's documented abroad, explained the domestic and global forces driving it and laid out potential strategies to protect our institutions. He also spoke about what might lie ahead for our nation, currently on the cusp of a constitutional crisis
If you didn’t catch our Substack Live, here are a few clips, as well as access to the full interview. It was a sobering, but essential, conversation about the future of American democracy with one of its most clear-eyed diagnosticians.
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