From Peace broker to arms dealer
Trump's frustration with Putin might be the best thing that's happened to Ukraine
“I’ve been hearing so much talk. It’s all talk. It’s all talk, and then missiles go into Kiev and kill 60 people,” President Trump said Monday about President Putin.
Trump’s exasperation with the Russian president has now crystallized into the most dramatic policy reversal of his presidency: a massive weapons surge to Ukraine that would have been unthinkable just weeks ago.
Standing alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte at the White House, Trump announced the U.S. will "dramatically increase weapons supplies to European allies," with those countries then sending arms to Ukraine. Trump said Patriot air defense systems could be sent to Ukraine “within days.”
The scheme is vintage Trump dealmaking with a twist: European allies foot the bill for American-made weapons that flow to Ukraine. It was Zelensky's proposal during the NATO summit two weeks ago, but it took Putin's humiliating rejection of Trump's peace overtures to turn it into reality.
Trump's pivot from would-be peacemaker to arms supplier represents more than wounded pride—it's a collision with the harsh arithmetic of great power competition. After promising to end the war in 24 hours, we're now 4,000 hours in, and Putin responded to Trump's latest phone call by launching the largest drone assault of the conflict just hours later. The message was unmistakable: Moscow isn't interested in Trump's dealmaking theatrics.
Now, Putin's rejection has unlocked Trump's transactional instincts in Ukraine's favor. The president who built his brand on unpredictability discovered that Putin wrote the playbook on keeping adversaries guessing. Sometimes the ultimate dealmaker meets someone who simply isn't interested in making deals—at least not on terms that look anything like winning for America.
Trump's threat of 100% secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian energy if there's no deal in "about 50 days" suggests this isn't just another mood swing. For Ukraine, hanging in the balance of this psychological drama, Trump's wounded ego might just be the best thing that's happened to their war effort.
I reserve comment whether this is really a pivot. A true pivot would be to accelerate any remaining items previously delayed, publicly thrashing Hegseth for cancellation of shipments, removal of the recent sanction reductions, and selling items directly to Ukraine (wouldn’t that make sense to protect the minerals deal?).
Right now I’m curious if there’s ever going to be any pushback for diplomacy by violent mood swing. Not knowing if decisions are made using strategy or raw unpredictable emotions is exhausting.