Gaza diplomacy crashes Bibi's victory lap
Trump thinks Iran strikes created leverage for a Gaza breakthrough. He plans to use it.
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For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Monday's White House meeting with Donald Trump was supposed to be pure victory theater – a chance to bask in the afterglow of Israel's stunning 12-day dismantling of Iran's nuclear program while cementing his image as the leader who made Israel safer than it had been in decades. Instead, Netanyahu will find himself in the familiar but uncomfortable position of managing Trump's expectations, as the president who green-lit the Iran strikes now demands payment in the form of a Gaza ceasefire that could threaten the very coalition keeping Netanyahu in power.
President Donald Trump is still riding high from Israel's surgical strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities while simultaneously issuing ultimatums about Gaza that sound more like hostage negotiations than diplomacy. "MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA. GET THE HOSTAGES BACK!!!" he posted on social media last week, as if caps lock could somehow penetrate the intractable reality of a 21-month war that has defied every previous ceasefire attempt.
But according to sources close to the administration, Trump's sudden urgency isn't just about ending Palestinian suffering or even bringing home Israeli hostages. The president has apparently caught a case of Nobel Prize fever – and he sees Gaza as his ticket to Oslo.
It's a remarkably Trump-like calculation: leverage his Iran success, exploit Netanyahu's precarious political position, and orchestrate a Middle East peace breakthrough that would cement his legacy while scratching his ego's perpetual itch for international recognition. The question isn't whether this approach might work – stranger things have happened in Trump's diplomatic universe – but whether anyone involved can distinguish between genuine peacemaking and elaborate political theater and if, in the end, it really matters if it produces results.
The Iran dividend
Trump's team believes they've created the perfect storm for a Gaza breakthrough. The 12-day war with Iran ended with Israel achieving what many thought impossible: degrading Tehran's nuclear capabilities without triggering regional conflagration. Trump, initially reluctant about the strikes, now walks around claiming credit for giving Netanyahu the green light that delivered this strategic victory.
That sense of accomplishment has created leverage Trump intends to use. Sources say he's fed up with Netanyahu's Gaza strategy, recognizing that Israel's prime minister has stretched military objectives beyond any reasonable definition of success. Trump has publicly acknowledged that Palestinians "have been through hell," even as his administration places the blame for the war squarely on Hamas. The president reportedly believes there's momentum to be seized – momentum that could translate into the kind of diplomatic triumph that wins prizes and cements his legacy.
It's classic Trump: turning geopolitical complexity into a personal brand opportunity. But this time, the calculation might actually align with strategic reality. Israel's position has never been stronger relative to Iran and its proxies. Hamas is militarily degraded, Hezbollah remains weakened, Iran's nuclear program has been set back years and, anxiety in the Iranian regime may preclude imminent retaliation on Israel. If there was ever a moment for Netanyahu to declare victory and pivot to diplomacy, this would be it.
The Netanyahu problem
The challenge is that Netanyahu faces his own set of political calculations – ones that have historically favored prolonging conflict over resolving it. Israeli hostage families and the broader public are increasingly vocal about wanting their loved ones home, playing directly to Trump's vanity by positioning him as their "only hope." But Netanyahu's right-wing coalition partners remain committed to maximizing Israel's military gains in Gaza, regardless of the human cost.
That's where Trump's interference in Israeli domestic politics becomes both audacious and potentially effective. His repeated calls for Israeli prosecutors to drop corruption charges against Netanyahu represent unprecedented meddling in an ally's judicial system, complete with threats to withhold U.S. military aid if the case proceeds. Trump has positioned himself as a fellow victim, insisting that "Bibi and I just went through HELL together" and calling the charges a "POLITICAL WITCH HUNT" similar to his own legal troubles. But the strategy reveals Trump's intuitive understanding of authoritarian motivations: he recognizes that Netanyahu's political survival depends partly on maintaining the wartime narrative that makes him indispensable. While Trump obviously can't directly influence Israeli prosecutors, he's betting that his public pressure will spark a domestic conversation about dropping the charges – which could, in theory, make Netanyahu more receptive to ending the war since his political survival wouldn't depend entirely on projecting strength through continued military action.
Hostage families' pressure
Israeli hostage families have learned to speak Trump's language. Their public appeals position him as their savior – exactly the kind of narrative that resonates with his self-image as a decisive dealmaker who succeeds where others fail. They understand that flattering Trump's ego might be more effective than appealing to his humanitarian instincts.
This dynamic creates pressure on Netanyahu from multiple directions: Trump demanding results, hostage families threatening political consequences, and a war-weary Israeli public increasingly questioning what continued fighting accomplishes. The confluence of these pressures, combined with Israel's strengthened strategic position post-Iran, creates conditions that might finally force Netanyahu to choose between personal political calculations and national strategic interests.
The Gulf calculation
Meanwhile, the "group of five" – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, and Egypt – are working on governance plans for post-war Gaza that could provide the framework Trump needs for a lasting solution. These countries recognize what Israel accomplished against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran as genuinely impressive for regional stability. But they're also questioning whether Netanyahu's domestic political situation is forcing him to prolong conflict unnecessarily.
Countries like Saudi Arabia are ready to move beyond the Gaza crisis toward broader normalization with Israel, but they need Palestinians to have some political horizon that goes beyond permanent occupation.
The Gulf states' involvement creates both opportunity and complexity for Trump's approach. Qatar, which helped broker the Iran ceasefire, has seen its status rise exponentially in Washington. From the American perspective, Qatar delivered on Iran and now appears positioned to deliver Hamas's agreement to a ceasefire. The rewards will likely come when final arrangements for Gaza's future are negotiated – arrangements that could marginalize Egypt in favor of Qatari influence.
Reality check
But turning momentum into sustainable peace requires more than presidential tweets and ego management. Hamas remains committed to political survival in Gaza, even in a weakened state. The Palestinian Authority lacks credibility with its own people after years of ineffective governance. And Netanyahu's coalition includes ministers who view any compromise as betrayal of maximalist objectives.
Trump's team recognizes these challenges but believes his unconventional approach – combining public pressure, private leverage, and appeals to personal interests – might break through where traditional diplomacy has failed. They point to his success with the Abraham Accords as evidence that Middle East breakthrough moments are possible when the right incentives align.
The bottom line
Whether Trump's Gaza gambit succeeds depends largely on his willingness to sustain pressure on Netanyahu while providing enough political cover for necessary concessions. The president has created genuine leverage through his Iran success and his interference in Israeli politics. But leverage only matters if he's prepared to use it consistently over time rather than simply declaring victory after a temporary ceasefire.
For now, Trump appears genuinely motivated to end the Gaza war – partly for humanitarian reasons, partly for his legacy, and quite possibly for his Nobel Prize aspirations. In the strange calculus of Trump diplomacy, vanity and geopolitics might just align long enough to accomplish something previous administrations couldn't: a sustainable end to one of the world's most intractable conflicts.
The ultimate test won't be whether Trump can pressure all parties into a 60-day pause – it will be whether he can resist the temptation to declare victory prematurely and instead sustain the difficult work of building something that lasts beyond his own news cycle.