Is the war eliminating the dead wood in the Iranian regime? If the regime survives — and survival, in some form, remains likely — it may not be the same regime that went in. A different generation could emerge from the wreckage, and there’s no guarantee it will be a more moderate one. The scenario that should keep policymakers up at night is an Iran run by IRGC hardliners who are no longer constrained by the clerical establishment and have been jockeying for power for years. Be careful what you wish for.
Then there’s the fog of spin. There’s an enormous amount of disinformation out there right now, and some of it is coming from inside the administration itself. Is Trump quietly looking for an off-ramp? Is there real daylight between him and Netanyahu? Here’s a reality check: the 15-point framework Trump presented to Iran amounted to unconditional surrender. There is no diplomatic ladder being quietly constructed. What you see is what you get.
The honest answer — the part no one in the foreign policy establishment wants to say out loud — is that we don’t really know where this ends. We are spitballing. The administration has been searching for an Iranian Delcý Rodriguez: a pragmatic insider willing to deal, to pivot, to be the face of a transition. That person doesn’t appear to exist in Tehran in any position to act on it. So the goal may be something more modest for now — setting the conditions for an organic transition, fracturing the regime’s internal coalitions, creating space for something different to emerge from within Iranian society. Achievable? Possibly. On what timeline? Nobody knows.
As Dany put it — channeling Churchill in that way she has — “We are at the end of the beginning. We are not, at the beginning of the end.”
Check out our conversation below with…..🎶 shownotes.
We’ll be back next week, and yes — we are taking reservations for Dictator’s Café. Recipes welcome. See you there.
The UAE stands up to Iran – Ambassador Yousef al-Otaiba (Wall Street Journal)
No, Trump is not losing his nerve on Iran – Marc Thiessen (Washington Post)
#WTH: Trump’s Iran endgame: podcast with retired General Jack Keane
Cosmopolitics: Iran is fighting a war - and itself: podcast with Arash Azizi
and…as promised..
Thank you David Galinsky, Michael Martineau, Hava Salita, and many others for tuning into my live video with Danielle Pletka! Join me for my next live video in the app.
