Is Bibi ready for Trump’s diplomatic hammer?

What the Middle East needs is tough love, not unconditional enabling.

When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives at the White House on Tuesday, he might want to buckle up. This isn't the same Donald Trump who gave him carte blanche during his first term. This time, Trump isn't just offering support – he's demanding results.

And that's exactly what the Middle East needs right now.

The region stands at a rare moment of opportunity. Iran's position is weakened, its proxies–from Hamas to Hezbollah–are battered, and the Assad regime's fall in Syria opens new possibilities for regional realignment. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) envisions transformative economic integration. Even the hostage deal Trump helped broker through his envoy Steve Witkoff shows what's possible when unconventional diplomacy meets strategic timing.

The choices facing regional players are stark. Saudi Arabia must decide whether to risk domestic pushback by normalizing relations with Israel. Netanyahu must choose between political survival and a historic legacy of regional peace. And Trump himself must decide whether to push his friend toward difficult compromises or settle for easier wins.

A Balancing Act for Arab States and Palestinians

Arab states face their own difficult calculations. They must balance their desire for relations with Israel and strategic alignment with the U.S. against their populations' demands for Palestinian rights. Jordan, home to millions of Palestinians, can't simply ignore their future. MBS, for all his transformative vision, needs a Palestinian political horizon to sell normalization at home.

The Palestinians too must make tough choices. The Palestinian Authority must decide whether to step up with serious governance proposals for a post-Hamas Gaza. This is a chance to prove it can be more than a spectator in its own future—but doing so means accepting difficult compromises and demonstrating it can deliver real governance.

But there's another reality that can't be wished away: Any lasting regional transformation requires addressing Palestinian aspirations. It's not about rewarding Hamas – it's about recognizing what Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and other potential partners need to move forward. The tragedy of October 7 makes this conversation more difficult, but not less necessary.

Trump’s New Diplomatic Playbook

The mechanics at play are fascinating. Witkoff has launched a new form of shuttle diplomacy, meeting Saudi leaders in Riyadh, Palestinian officials, and Netanyahu's team in Jerusalem. It's a departure from the Qatar-led mediation that secured the initial hostage deal – and it signals Trump's broader ambitions for regional transformation.

Here's what makes this moment different: Israeli public opinion is more flexible than Netanyahu's right-wing coalition suggests. Recent polling shows 60% of Israelis prefer Trump's vision of Saudi normalization with a path to Palestinian statehood over the annexation dreams of the far right. Even after October 7, pragmatism appears to be winning over ideology.

This creates an opening for Trump's dealmaker approach. Unlike Biden, whose criticism of Israel was often dismissed as hostile, Trump has the credibility with both Israeli voters and Netanyahu himself to deliver tough love. When Witkoff told Netanyahu "your coalition is your problem," it carried weight precisely because it came from Trump's team.

The deal taking shape is more complex – and potentially more transformative – than previous peace efforts. MBS has pledged $600 billion in U.S. investments, but he needs concrete progress on Palestinian statehood to sell normalization at home. As custodian of Islam's holiest sites, Saudi Arabia can't appear to abandon Palestinian aspirations entirely.

Netanyahu’s Impossible Choice

Netanyahu faces what diplomats politely call an exquisite dilemma. His far-right coalition partners threaten to bolt if he extends the ceasefire or entertains Palestinian statehood. But Trump–arguably Israel's strongest ally–is pushing him toward exactly that choice. It's a battle between legacy and political survival, and Netanyahu can't have both.

The Saudi piece is particularly delicate. Unlike the UAE and Bahrain, which normalized relations with Israel in 2020, Saudi participation would fundamentally reshape the region's strategic landscape. MBS knows this is a card he can only play once – and he needs concrete Israeli commitments to make it work.

Trump's team appears to understand these complexities. They're crafting a sequence that could see the current Gaza ceasefire evolve into a broader regional realignment. It would likely include U.S. security guarantees for Saudi Arabia, support for its civilian nuclear program, and a clear pathway toward Palestinian political rights – all while maintaining Israel's security requirements.

Critics will say the wounds of October 7 are too fresh for talk of Palestinian statehood. They're not wrong about the challenges. But they might be missing the strategic opportunity created by Iran's weakened position, Hamas's battlefield losses, and the changing dynamics in Syria.

The Art of the Deal—Middle East Edition

This is where Trump's "art of the deal" approach – combining pressure, incentives, and unpredictability – could be precisely what's needed. By expanding the diplomatic canvas, he creates room for all parties to claim victories while making necessary compromises. Netanyahu gets regional peace and Saudi normalization. MBS gets Palestinian progress and U.S. security guarantees. Even the Palestinian Authority gets a potential path back to relevance.

The question isn't whether Trump will support Israel – he will. The question is whether he can convince Netanyahu that sometimes the truest form of friendship is telling hard truths. The Middle East needs tough love right now, not unconditional enabling.

For Netanyahu, it's a choice between his coalition and his legacy. For Trump, it's a chance to prove his dealmaking prowess can deliver what conventional diplomacy couldn't. For the region, it might be the rare moment when the interests of all major players align just enough to make the unthinkable possible.

The Abraham Accords proved that paradigm shifts can happen in the Middle East. Now, with Iran weakened and regional dynamics shifting, an even bigger transformation is possible. But it requires everyone – especially Netanyahu – to make difficult choices. Sometimes, only a true friend can help you make them.

The meetings in Washington this week won't just determine the future of the Gaza ceasefire. They could set the course for the most significant regional realignment in decades.

No pressure, Bibi.