Is Nikki Haley more Biden than Trump?
Nikki Haley' promises Trump's assertiveness without the chaos. But would her foreign policy differ from Biden's?
As New Hampshire's votes trickle in, the world is not just watching a political race; it's witnessing a pivotal moment that could redefine America's global image, already under scrutiny post-Trump.
Last week at the World Economic Forum, the collective gulp at the very mention of Trump's potential re-election was louder than any of the speeches. It was clear that the Davos crowd, a barometer of global elite sentiment, is betting on a Trump redux, and that's causing more than a few sleepless nights in European capitals.
World leaders fear a sequel to Trump's unique blend of toxic diplomacy - part madman, part bull in a china shop - where global politics meet prime-time entertainment, and unpredictability is the only predictable element.
That maverick style, coupled with Trump's "America First" doctrine, had a seismic impact: it jolted European leaders out of a post-Cold War slumber, where reliance on American military and economic might was a given. If re-elected, Trump's isolationist and tariff-centric policies could reshape global trade and economic relations, leaving NATO and Europe to pick up the tab.
Now, European leaders, in anticipation of a Trumpian sequel, are dusting off their strategy books. Their focus? Defense, self-reliance, and trade – a trinity of concerns shaped by the possibility of U.S. disengagement under Trump’s watch. It’s ironic that Trump, often criticized for his isolationist leanings, may inadvertently become the wake-up call for Europe's strategic autonomy.
Enter Nikki Haley, a candidate who is seemingly promising a hybrid – the assertiveness of Trump sans the chaos. Her campaign seems to be banking on this contrast – a nod to stability and predictability in a world still reeling from the aftershocks of Trump's policies. How would Haley navigate the complex web of global politics? For starters, her conservative approach to foreign policy suggests a firmer stance on authoritarian regimes than Trump and a more cohesive strategy with allies.
But would a Haley administration be markedly different from President Biden's? In a world increasingly accustomed to America's inward gaze, it’s unclear would her brand of diplomacy resonate, or be seen as a rehashed version of a bygone era.
The Biden administration, stepping into a diplomatic landscape riddled with Trump's landmines, has had its work cut out. From Ukraine's frontlines to Gaza's turmoil, Biden's tenure has been less about reinventing America's image and more about staunching the bleed of credibility. But let's not kid ourselves; stopping the bleed doesn't necessarily signal a return to full health.
Biden's approach, marked by a return to diplomatic norms and rebuilding alliances, has been like a soothing balm. Yet, one can't help but wonder if it's been enough to erase the deep scars left by his predecessor. The world, having seen the pendulum swing so wildly, remains wary. Can America's word, once taken as gospel in global corridors, hold the same weight again – especially given the polarization in Congress on traditionally bipartisan foreign policy issues? Or has the era of Trump irreversibly changed the rules of international engagement?
In this context, it's not entirely absurd to ponder if Trump's unorthodox methods were necessary bitter medicine. Did his presidency, with all its controversies and shocks, inadvertently push allies towards healthier self-reliance? It’s a classic case of the Trumpian paradox: unsettling the global order to an extent that nations began rethinking their age-old dependencies. The allure of Trump’s unpredictability, for all its chaos, has shown that sometimes, upending the conventional can lead to unexpected gains – like pushing NATO members to increase their defense spending or initiating unprecedented dialogues with North Korea.
As such, the possibility of Trump's return raises another critical question: would a second term hurt the world, or just America's global influence? With European nations looking inward for security and economic stability, a second Trump term might not spell disaster for the world, but rather a reorientation. It's a world that could potentially move on from American leadership, finding new centers of power and influence, like China – which has been waiting in the wings. Would this spell an apocalypse for global order or simply a recalibration – one where the U.S. is a player, not the referee?
The real intrigue lies in how America navigates this transformed landscape. Whether under Biden's band-aid approach, Haley's calculated diplomacy, or Trump's capricious rule, the challenge for the next president will be to chart a path for America in a world that's learning to move on with or without it. The global stage is no longer America's solo act.
I think the headline is unfortunate. Haley is willing to say any word salad people will accept and is not known for her ethics. Based on what we know, she will be an America First isolationist willing to sell out to dark money, far right nationalists. Neither Haley nor Trump can be counted on for good policy. Americans and Allies should be skeptical of anything either says on the campaign trail.
As a European - (alas living in the UK - a nation who has no idea who they are) - we are not so in touch with the details and consequences of US politics. But overall Trump (and to a lesser extend JFKjr) seems the president of peace. Europeans have a snobby, irrational attitude towards Trump, but in our hearts, we know bitterly, the consequences of actual war (as opposed to the ‘war on drugs’ or ‘war on disinformation’ etc .. ) America’s unique and safe geography makes war more of a concept that’s difficult to understand. In Europe we feel it. Europe, the world needs a leader in the US that stops exacerbating wars and with an attitude like Trump - who when asked what would his solution to xyz war have been - said “they wouldn’t have happened in the first place” and we know that is true. After all who cares about the details if ultimately there’s no countries left. Ukraine has been destroyed, the young killed. Palestine is just rubble. The Middle East a place few truly understand, but that that’s the danger. We need someone who doesn’t let wars happen, who wants to end them - even if he’s a crazy orange man. He wants peace. We all need peace.