Interesting interview. I don’t agree with Bolton on many things including his position that regime change must be the goal. History has proven that this fantasy leads to disaster. But his observation that Trump is motivated by domestic politics not strategy is exactly right. After all, th serious strategy people have been pushed out or silenced so why else could be guiding decisions?
Similarly, Victor Orbán is expected to lose the current election in Hungary, and he clearly doesn’t want any real competition. Do you see that as another dangerous threat that could destabilize Europe, or is it mostly internal Hungarian politics? What happens if he overreacts?
I agree it would be a disaster, but I actually see Erdogan’s statement as a serious threat that needs to be handled very carefully. It’s like a potential bomb that has to be disarmed before it escalates.
This raises a critical question: if Türkiye joins the conflict and is subsequently attacked by Israel, would NATO be obligated to enter the war on Türkiye’s side? Wouldn China just let trump do whatever he wants?
I lost interest in what Bolton had to say after he refused to testify before congress so that he could make more money on his book. He is no better than the other trump people.
Bolton is a smart guy, but he is just ridiculous on this stuff. Planning should have been going on for years for something like this (and probably was, but Trump ignored it), whether or not they intended to do it, because circumstances might have forced it. And the only likely way to get regime changes is with massive ground operations. And then there are always those pesky unintended consequences of almost any major war, no matter how much planning you do.
Boltons right on the strait. We should’ve opened it with the naval force we assembled in the area. The IRGC/Qud Force run the country and control the Artesh. Regardless of weak “supreme leader,” IRGC is same as Nazi SS but now runs everything with vicious monopoly on violence to brutally control population. The Islamist Shiite IRGC leaders with like minded proxies and in conflict with Sunni neighbors make region dynamics very complex in political and religious terms. Trump doesn’t understand any of this and probably doesn’t care
Trump said “The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process.”
Who will make big money? Iran by selling oil and charging tolls!’?? He implies Iran which can start reconstruction
Interesting interview. I don’t agree with Bolton on many things including his position that regime change must be the goal. History has proven that this fantasy leads to disaster. But his observation that Trump is motivated by domestic politics not strategy is exactly right. After all, th serious strategy people have been pushed out or silenced so why else could be guiding decisions?
Bolton has an interesting perspective.
Thank you Elise.
This was such an incisive discussion. Thanks for links to some of Ambassador Bolton's recent work.
https://cashflowcollective.substack.com/p/strongmen-crumble-orban-falls-hormuz
Erdogan says, If The War drags in and US-Iran talks in Pakistan failed to achieve peace, then Türkiye may enter the war against Israel.
I have to think about that but don’t think trump would let Turkey do that
That would be a disaster but I serious doubt they make good on that threat.
Similarly, Victor Orbán is expected to lose the current election in Hungary, and he clearly doesn’t want any real competition. Do you see that as another dangerous threat that could destabilize Europe, or is it mostly internal Hungarian politics? What happens if he overreacts?
I agree it would be a disaster, but I actually see Erdogan’s statement as a serious threat that needs to be handled very carefully. It’s like a potential bomb that has to be disarmed before it escalates.
This raises a critical question: if Türkiye joins the conflict and is subsequently attacked by Israel, would NATO be obligated to enter the war on Türkiye’s side? Wouldn China just let trump do whatever he wants?
I lost interest in what Bolton had to say after he refused to testify before congress so that he could make more money on his book. He is no better than the other trump people.
Bolton is a smart guy, but he is just ridiculous on this stuff. Planning should have been going on for years for something like this (and probably was, but Trump ignored it), whether or not they intended to do it, because circumstances might have forced it. And the only likely way to get regime changes is with massive ground operations. And then there are always those pesky unintended consequences of almost any major war, no matter how much planning you do.
Boltons right on the strait. We should’ve opened it with the naval force we assembled in the area. The IRGC/Qud Force run the country and control the Artesh. Regardless of weak “supreme leader,” IRGC is same as Nazi SS but now runs everything with vicious monopoly on violence to brutally control population. The Islamist Shiite IRGC leaders with like minded proxies and in conflict with Sunni neighbors make region dynamics very complex in political and religious terms. Trump doesn’t understand any of this and probably doesn’t care
Trump makes things up as he goes along
Trump said “The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process.”
Who will make big money? Iran by selling oil and charging tolls!’?? He implies Iran which can start reconstruction