Taiwan as the porcupine
To prevent a Chinese invasion, Washington needs a blend of economic, political, diplomatic muscle, and, yes, military deterrence, sprinkled with a dose of reassurance to Beijing.
If geopolitics is akin to a game of chess, Taiwan just moved its queen with the election of Vice President Lai Ching-te as president – a candidate that China vilified during the campaign as a “destroyer of peace.” Cue the ominous music from Beijing warning of war!
traveled to Taiwan for the election and has some great coverage at . And of course, for all things China, I turn to and .But let’s talk about what the U.S. could do now to fend off China in the wake of the Taiwanese election.
For years, the foreign policy blob has focused on military deterrence as the only means of averting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But military muscle-flexing alone won’t be enough. What's needed is a more nuanced playbook - a blend of economic, political, diplomatic muscle, and, yes, military deterrence, sprinkled with a dose of reassurance to Beijing.
Let's start with economics. Many describe Taiwan’s strength in microchips as its “silicon shield.” The world needs those chips, and nobody wants their gadgets held hostage by cross-strait skirmishes. Imagine a Silicon Valley and Silicon Shield partnership, ensuring that crucial tech isn’t just a commodity but a strategic asset. The U.S. and its allies could further integrate Taiwan into critical supply chains, ensuring that key technologies aren't just 'Made in Taiwan' but 'Created with Taiwan'. This can involve joint research initiatives, shared manufacturing facilities abroad, or even preferential trade agreements focusing on tech exports. Strengthening Taiwan's economic ties globally not only fortifies its position but also makes any aggression towards it unpalatable.
In the political arena, Taiwan can be positioned not just as a democracy but as a democratic trendsetter. The world loves a David-versus-Goliath tale, especially when David innovates like Steve Jobs on steroids. Think about Taiwan hosting international forums on digital democracy, sharing its successful COVID-19 management strategies, or leading environmental conservation efforts. A great example could be a 'Taiwan Model' for emerging economies, blending technological advancement with democratic values. Such international recognition, even if it's just a diplomatic nod-and-wink, bolsters Taiwan's legitimacy and positions it as more than just a renegade province.
It’s time to get more creative on the diplomatic front. Ryan Hass and Jude Blanchette call for a “a new and broader understanding of deterrence,” including a “clear unwavering signal of U.S. support for Taiwan.” Instead of strongly worded tweets, the U.S. should build a network of alliances and craft a web of partnerships and understandings that turn Taiwan from a solitary pawn into a central piece in that game of geopolitical chess. It's about making sure Taipei isn't just a topic in conversations between Washington and Beijing, but a participant in global dialogues. Why? Because the world listens when you have friends at your party, not just frenemies.
Taiwan's participation in international organizations should also be championed by its allies. For instance, Taiwan could play a more prominent role in global health under the World Health Organization's framework, contributing its expertise as it did during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, setting up 'cultural and economic offices' that function like embassies in countries where formal recognition is tricky, can deepen ties. Think of it as diplomacy by stealth – not a frontal assault on the one-China policy, but a side door into international relations.
There are plenty more innovative approaches to strengthen Taiwan’s global position. For example, encouraging Taiwanese investments in critical sectors in friendly countries can extend its economic influence. Educational exchange programs can also be a soft-power play, creating a global community of Taiwan alumni who understand and appreciate its unique position and culture.
But what about military deterrence? As I have said before, parking aircraft carriers in the neighborhood isn’t going to cut it. Some military experts believe aid should go beyond selling arms to integrated defense planning. Joint military exercises with allies, even co-development of defense technologies can be explored. For instance, joint U.S.-Taiwan cyber defense initiatives could be a model, focusing on threats in the digital realm. Also, offering training and exchange programs for Taiwanese military personnel in advanced warfare tactics can further strengthen its self-defense capabilities.
Taiwan needs to become the geopolitical equivalent of a porcupine – unappetizing for a dragon to swallow. This involves training, real-time intelligence sharing, and maybe a sprinkle of those retired ‘diplomats’ who know a thing or two about tactical strategies. Taiwan needs to be more than just defensible, but a Rubik's cube of a problem for any potential aggressor.
All this flexing and posturing will likely leave China feeling cornered, and a cornered dragon tends to breathe fire. That's where reassurances come in, as Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen suggest in the recent issue of Foriegn Affairs. This is perhaps the trickiest part. It's not about kowtowing to Beijing's every whim. It’s about signaling that strengthening Taiwan doesn’t mean cutting China out of the picture, just ensuring the picture isn’t drawn in only red ink.
The aim here is to convey that these measures aren't about encircling China but about maintaining a stable status quo. This might involve back-channel communications to Beijing emphasizing that Taiwan's enhanced international role isn't a prelude to formal independence, something the Biden administration has said the U.S. doesn’t support. Additionally, economic cooperation projects that include China, like tripartite environmental initiatives or shared research in areas of mutual interest like renewable energy, can serve as olive branches, as could continued efforts by Washington to encourage a return to cross-strait dialogue. Lai himself repeatedly said during the campaign that he wanted to keep the status quo with China and offered to talk to Beijing.
The US goal should be to make Taiwan indispensable – weaving it so intricately into the global fabric that any attempt to unravel its position would require unraveling the whole tapestry.
In sum, the US should turn Taiwan from a geopolitical hot potato to a respected member at the table – sure, a table in a room that China built, but a table where others are welcome. A place where Taiwan's voice isn’t just heard in hushed whispers but considered in clear, confident tones. These ideas are not a substitute for military might. But crafting an approach that proactively strengthens Taiwan's global position against China could, just maybe, lessen the need to rush to its defense.
Loose Change
1) Ambassador David Scheffer, a former diplomat and Vice President of the American Society of International Law makes the bold suggestion that if China invades Taiwan, the United States should recognize the Taiwan as a sovereign state while maintaining its long-standing recognition of China and without severing diplomatic relations, calling the recognition card “a powerful diplomatic weapon” for Washington to deploy if Beijing abandons peaceful means to solve the Taiwan issue.
2) When considering a broader approach to deterrence with China, it’s worth wondering if such an approach could have changed Putin’s perceptions with regard to the invasion of Ukraine. In this interview with the Associated Press, Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan’s former representative in Washington and Taipei’s Vice-President elect talks about the lessons Taiwan has learned from Ukraine’s war that might help it deter any attack by China.