The Cosmopolitics Weekend Edit

The G7's dueling narratives, tensions spike between Israel and Hezbollah, RFK lays out foreign policy and Chinese women crush on... a chatbot?

Cosmopolitans! It’s been a busy few months. I am going to take a short break next week to visit some family and friends in California. . It’s not the plush Italian Borgo Egnazia resort. home to this week’s the G7 summit. But all of those world leaders all have some serious problems….I guess they deserve a nice view.

Dueling Narratives on the G7 Summit

The G7 leaders' gathering at the plush Borgo Egnazia resort in Italy underscored a paradox of resilience amid fragility. Once revitalized by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the G7 now spearheads the West’s strategic maneuvers against Moscow and Beijing. Yet, beneath the surface, almost every attending leader came to Italy grappling with significant domestic turmoil:

USA: President Joe Biden is locked in a tight race against former President Donald Trump.

France: President Emmanuel Macron has been thrust into a snap parliamentary vote following an electoral loss.

UK: PM Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party teeters on the brink of electoral defeat.

Canada: PM Justin Trudeau faces waning approval.

Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is struggling with poor approval ratings and EU election setbacks.

Japan: PM Kishida Fumio's approval ratings are plummeting due to a financial scandal.

This weakened state of leadership, particularly in traditionally strong nations like France and Germany, raises profound questions about future power dynamics within the European Union. The recent European Parliament elections have shifted the EU's balance of power towards the right, with Italy's far-right PM Giorgia Meloni emerging stronger.

Despite these domestic challenges, the G7 has marked significant achievements. The agreement to provide Ukraine with a $50 billion loan, funded by interest from frozen Russian assets, stands out as a major milestone. However, there’s an underlying sense of urgency, with leaders seemingly racing against time to cement their goals before potential shifts in political leadership alter the status quo. The resilience of the G7 is undeniable, yet this year's summit could signify the twilight of its current era of influence.

Is the West pulling together on Ukraine?

The United States has ramped up sanctions against Russia, imposing over 300 new restrictions targeting individuals and businesses aiding Moscow’s defense industry. The sanctions extend to Russia’s financial sector, aiming to cripple entities like the Moscow Exchange and the National Settlement Depository. This intensification is a clear signal of the West’s commitment to curbing Russia’s war capabilities.

The G7’s $50 billion loan to Ukraine, using interest from frozen Russian assets, represents a significant compromise between nations like Canada, which advocated for outright asset seizure, and European countries concerned about legal ramifications. The implementation of this agreement will require intricate financial and legal maneuvering, but it is a substantial step forward.

Moreover, President Biden and Ukraine's President Zelensky have signed a landmark 10-year bilateral security agreement. This pact aims to bolster Ukraine’s defense and pave the way for its NATO membership, signaling a long-term partnership that transcends current political uncertainties. Despite former President Trump's skepticism about continued U.S. support for Ukraine, Zelensky remains optimistic, banking on enduring popular support for Ukraine’s struggle.

Russia fights back….against U.S.

Russia is not just intensifying its military efforts in Ukraine; it is also flexing its muscles closer to U.S. shores. Russian warships, including a nuclear-powered submarine, have docked in Cuba, serving as a stark reminder of America’s vulnerabilities. While a nuclear confrontation is unlikely, this move is designed to instill anxiety in the U.S. and Europe, leveraging Russia's proximity to American shores for psychological warfare.

This strategy harks back to Cold War-era tactics, with Russia aiming to disrupt U.S. maritime operations and economic stability. The recent phone call between President Putin and Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel underscores the strategic importance of Cuba in U.S.-Russia relations. The potential for Russia to blockade vital U.S. ports in the Gulf of Mexico highlights the ongoing strategic chess game between Moscow and Washington.

Adding to the tension, the upcoming trial of U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich on espionage charges further strains U.S.-Russia relations. Gershkovich's arrest is widely seen as a bargaining tactic by Moscow, aiming to leverage his release for concessions from the U.S.

Why Putin is loving Europe's political earthquake

The recent European Parliament elections have sent shockwaves through the EU, with far-right and pro-Russian parties making significant gains in key countries like France and Germany. For Putin, these developments are a strategic windfall. The success of Marine Le Pen's National Rally in France and the Alternative for Deutschland in Germany weakens two of the EU's strongest nations, creating political instability and diverting attention from Ukraine.

Putin’s strategy of influencing European politics through disinformation and covert support for sympathetic parties is bearing fruit. The rise of pro-Russian factions in the EU Parliament could undermine the bloc's unified stance against Russia, weakening support for Ukraine and easing sanctions on Moscow.

Hezbollah raises stakes for Israel in the north

Israel's targeted killing of a senior Hezbollah commander has thrown gasoline on the already smoldering fire along the Israel-Lebanon border. Hezbollah, in its trademark retaliatory style, fired over 200 missiles into Israel, vowing to ramp up the aggression. This latest tit-for-tat isn’t just another episode in their long-running feud; it’s a significant escalation. While Hezbollah uses advanced drones and anti-aircraft missiles to showcase a new level of sophistication and boldness in their tactics, Israeli troops are using a medieval-style catapult to toss fireballs across the border into Lebanon The trebuchet, a rotating arm with a sling attached to launch a projectile, has rarely been used since the 16th century.

Observers can't help but notice how Hezbollah’s strategy has evolved since the October 7 attack by Hamas. The Lebanese group has not only stepped up its skirmishes along the border but also downed Israeli drones and even targeted the Iron Dome. This isn't just about solidarity with Gaza; it's a calculated move to pressure Israel into a ceasefire deal with Hamas by making the northern front too costly to ignore.

This surge in violence has led to widespread destruction in northern Israel, prompting strong Israeli reprisals. Despite the casualties and the potential for a broader conflict, both sides seem intent on keeping the escalation controlled, avoiding a full-scale war. But make no mistake, Hezbollah’s increasingly audacious actions send a clear message: they’re ready for any escalation Israel might provoke.

Hamas' ceasefire tantrum

Hamas has responded to the US-brokered ceasefire proposal with demands that are likely to prolong the conflict. They are pushing for a complete and permanent halt to hostilities, rather than the phased truce on the table. This move is seen by many as a strategic ploy to keep the war going, boost the Palestinian cause, and further tarnish Israel’s image internationally.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has yet to publicly commit to the ceasefire plan, reflecting deep divisions within his government. The far-right factions vehemently oppose any deal that leaves Hamas in control of Gaza, advocating instead for a total military victory. Hamas, aware of this internal rift, seems to be making demands it knows Netanyahu can't accept, thereby prolonging the conflict and increasing civilian casualties.

Hamas’ leader Yahya Sinwar recently remarked that Hamas has Israel "right where we want them," underscoring their belief that the longer the conflict drags on, the more it damages Israel’s global standing. As the war grinds on, the humanitarian toll rises, and with it, the pressure on Israel to find a solution. But with the political landscape shifting and hard-liners gaining influence, a resolution seems more elusive than ever.

Gantz takes a stand

Benny Gantz has finally withdrawn his party from Israel’s unity government, criticizing Prime Minister Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza conflict. Gantz’s exit, along with war cabinet observer Gadi Eisenkot, underscores the growing frustration within the government over Netanyahu’s lack of a coherent strategy for ending the war and managing Gaza’s future.

Gantz and Eisenkot had been advocating for a ceasefire deal that included the release of Israeli hostages and a plan for post-war governance in Gaza. Their departure signifies a significant shift in the political dynamics, potentially strengthening the hand of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners who oppose any truce with Hamas.

While Gantz’s move doesn’t immediately threaten Netanyahu’s majority, it highlights the increasing public discontent and the possibility of early elections. Should opposition leaders unite and manage to peel off a few coalition members, Netanyahu could face a serious political crisis. For now, the exit of moderates like Gantz means that hard-liners within the government will have more sway, pushing for a more aggressive military approach in Gaza and Lebanon.

RFK Jr.'s controversial and contradictory foreign policy positions

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., speaking at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library, presented a provocative vision for America's future. His central thesis is that the United States, by shedding its imperialistic tendencies and focusing on moral leadership, can revitalize its domestic landscape and global standing.

To achieve this, Kennedy proposes a dramatic reduction in the U.S. military budget by half within his first three years in office, with further cuts to follow.Kennedy argues that this redirection of funds will enable the U.S. to bolster domestic programs and the economy. "In the end, we’re going to have a stronger, smarter, better-targeted national defense," he stated, emphasizing that investing in domestic infrastructure and social programs would rejuvenate the nation’s vitality. This vision stands in stark contrast to the current defense expenditures, which, despite declining as a percentage of GDP, still far exceed those of other nations combined.

Drawing from historical figures like his uncle, President John F. Kennedy, and Richard Nixon, Kennedy highlighted the power of moral leadership over military might. He pointed out that both leaders understood that America's influence grew when it projected economic strength and moral authority rather than force.

Kennedy contrasted this with China's foreign policy approach, which he praised for focusing on economic development in Africa and South America rather than military expansion. He noted that China's $8 trillion investment in infrastructure has fostered global goodwill and influence, whereas America's "forever wars" have bred enemies and drained resources.

Kennedy's critique extends to America’s recent foreign engagements, arguing that American interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan triggered instability and the rise of groups like ISIS. He contends that these conflicts have displaced millions, fueling migration crises that destabilize Western democracies. By adopting a less aggressive stance and focusing on economic aid, Kennedy believes the U.S. can restore its global standing and foster stability.

Kennedy's views on the Ukraine-Russia conflict are particularly controversial. He opposes further U.S. military aid to Ukraine, suggesting that the war is a result of avoidable provocation and missteps in diplomacy. Kennedy has been critical of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's stance, suggesting that Zelensky's refusal to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin exacerbates the conflict. He has also echoed Russian narratives, claiming that NATO's expansion and the need to "de-Nazify" Ukraine were factors in Russia's invasion.

Kennedy has consistently defended Israel's right to protect itself against threats like Hamas, particularly following the October 7, 2023, massacre. While some Western powers have urged Israel to show restraint, Kennedy argues that a ceasefire would merely allow Hamas to rearm, perpetuating the conflict. However, his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, has expressed differing views, calling for more restraint from Israel and describing the situation in Gaza as devastating.

Kennedy's vision is rooted in a desire to see America redirect its vast resources toward solving the country's struggles with chronic disease, addiction, and economic inequality, advocating for a rebuild that strengthens the dollar and addresses the nation's infrastructure and social needs.

Kennedy's assertion that the U.S. can regain its global primacy by stepping back from its role as a global enforcer offers a bold reimagining of America's place in the world. In February I argued in why America can’t be isolationist AND a superpower.

IMF warns of growing US debt

Gita Gopinath, the second-in-command at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has raised alarms once more about the increasing fiscal deficits in the United States and China. Gopinath emphasizes that these high deficits pose significant threats to the global economy, urging Washington to take decisive action. She suggests that the U.S. has considerable room to curb spending and raise taxes to mitigate potential economic fallout.

US is for democracy... just not for Northeast Syria

A recent statement from the State Department has sparked controversy by urging local officials in northeast Syria to halt elections, despite numerous women running for office. This stance appears to contradict the US National Security Strategy, which advocates for democracy and gender inclusion. The elections, set to be the largest outside regime control since the conflict began, raise questions about America's commitment to promoting free and fair elections globally, especially in regions like northeast Syria.

World court blocks US swimmer Lia Thomas from competing in Olympics

Lia Thomas, a former University of Pennsylvania swimmer who transitioned from male to female, has been barred from competing in the Olympics by the World Aquatics governing body. Thomas, who set records and won NCAA gold, challenged the rule prohibiting transgender athletes who underwent male puberty from competing in women’s events. However, the sports court dismissed her case, stating she lacks standing as she is no longer part of US Swimming. The ruling did not address the broader issue of trans athletes in women's sports but was seen by World Aquatics as a step to protect women's sports.

Record pilgrims expected for Hajj

Saudi Arabia says more than 1.5 million pilgrims have already arrived in Mecca for the annual Hajj, which started Friday. Authorities anticipate far exceeding last year's 1.8 million participants, and numbers could surpass the pre-pandemic peak of 2.4 million from 2019. The Haj, one of the five pillars of Islam, must be performed at least once by all Muslims with the means. Given it is unfolding this year in the shadow of the Gaza conflict, the Kingdom is trying to keep the focus on prayers. The Gulf kingdom’s minister in charge of religious pilgrimages, Tawfiq al-Rabiah, warned last week that “no political activity” will be tolerated.

Bolivia brews up a storm with coca-infused beer

Bolivia is spicing up its coca leaf game by rolling out a variety of products, from soaps and shampoos to an exciting new beer. La Paz’s El Viejo Roble Distillery is leading the charge with a coca-infused brew. When can you get your hands on it? Well, it might be a bit tricky. Although coca-leaf products are perfectly legal and vital to Bolivia's economy, they're banned in many countries due to their UN narcotic classification. However, Bolivia isn't backing down. They're pushing for a WHO review to change this status, backed by Colombia and Mexico, who are also big players in the coca scene.

These findings are crucial for Bolivia. The coca leaf isn't just an economic powerhouse, supporting over 70,000 cocaleros (coca growers) and adding hundreds of millions of dollars to the GDP; it also holds deep spiritual significance for Indigenous communities.

Rare and sacred blue room discovered in Pompeii

After being buried and lost for nearly 2,000 years, an ornate "blue room" has emerged from the ruins of Pompeii during recent excavations. The cerulean-painted walls are particularly significant, as experts note that this pigment was rarely found in Pompeian frescoes. Due to its difficulty to produce, the color was the most expensive and typically used for elaborately decorated rooms. The excavation is part of a larger project aimed at safeguarding Pompeii's vast heritage, which includes 13,000 rooms in 1,070 residential units, as well as public and sacred areas, according to the Archaeological Park of Pompeii.

Dan the man: Chinese women crushing on AI boyfriend

ChatGPT-generated picture of Chinese influencer Lisa Li with "boyfriend" Dan. Credit: BBC

Ladies, I’ve found the perfect man. “Dan” is successful, kind, provides emotional support, always knows just what to say, and is available 24/7. The only catch? He’s not real.

I absolutely LOVE this BBC story about a new custom version of ChatGPT that Chinese women are crushing on. Tired of the dating pool? Dan can interact with users like your ideal boyfriend through specific prompts. You can even create your own Dan – or Danielle!

Have a great weekend! I will be back the week of June 24 with new posts, along iwth your global guide to summer reads, podcasts, shows/films and other summer fun. (and if you have any suggestions, please pass along!)