The hunt for a Palestinian Plan B

The Palestinian Authority needs a major overhaul, not a facelift

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's shuttle diplomacy across the Middle East since October 7 has become a defining feature of the current U.S. diplomatic approach to the region: perpetual motion with little forward movement. Close to four months into the war, Blinken’s efforts to forge the path toward a viable two-state solution have been marked more by brainstorming sessions than concrete action, particularly regarding the much-needed restructuring of Palestinian leadership – something the administration vaguely refers to as a “revitalized Palestinian Authority.”

During Blinken's recent trip, he managed to secure the agreement of a “contact group” of nations – Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey - committed to work towards the rebuilding of Gaza and the development of Palestinian governance. But frustration is building that, like so many “contact groups” of its kind, the process is more like a well-meaning New Year’s resolution, more about intention than realization.

“The creation of a contact group to debate ideas and discuss initiatives is important. But what is equally crucial is the quick transition from discussion to action and implementation,” Yousef al-Otaiba, the United Arab Emirates Ambassador to Washington, tells me.

The Israelis, too, are scrambling for a post-war plan. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's refusal to involve the Palestinian Authority in governing Gaza has boxed his government in. Sources in Israel and Ramallah tell me Israelis from across the government have now resorted to reaching out to various local Palestinian clan leaders for governance roles in Gaza. The fragmented, uncoordinated strategy is reminiscent of the strip’s Village Leagues of the 1970s that divided Gaza into small fiefdoms of warlords. If Israel is seeking to replicate Somalia or Afghanistan, reviving the Leagues is perfect. Otherwise…

Ultimate legitimacy for any future Palestinian governing structure will hinge on conducting free and fair elections across all Palestinian territories, including Gaza – something the Palestinians haven’t seen since Mahmoud Abbas's last election in 2005.

That’s a near impossibility in the immediate aftermath of the war – and may well have been difficult even before October 7. But just like in 2005 - the last time Hamas won an open election - be careful what you wish for. Even today, polls show Hamas would still win in an open election of all Palestinians.

In any event, we are where we are - which is an interim process that would force serious changes in the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation Organization, which together form a complex and corrupt web of monopolies.

“Everyone is looking for a name,” says James Prince, the president of Democracy Council, who has worked on Palestinian governance and reform programs for decades. "But the problem is the system of governance itself. It doesn’t function. You can’t reform something that doesn’t make sense."

The U.S. is relying on President Abbas to drive these reforms. But at 88, Mahmoud Abbas is nearly 19 years into a four-year term. Weak and criticized for corruption, mismanagement, and cronyism, nearly 88 percent of Palestinians want him to resign, according to the Arab Barometer’s survey of the West Bank and Gaza, conducted in partnership with the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.

But who can take the wheel? Abbas’s rule has been fueled by adherence to an established guard, which has stifled the rise of a new generation of Palestinian leaders, unlike his predecessor Yasser Arafat. For all Arafat’s flaws, Gaith al-Omari, an advisor to Arafat who held numerous positions within the Palestinian Authority before becoming a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, recalls the former Palestinian leader was adept at nurturing the next generation of Palestinians.

“Arafat was always on the lookout for diverse young talent, identifying and promoting them,” he says.

In fact, many of the names being thrown around as a successor to Abbas come from the era of Yasser Arafat, such as Marwan Barghouti, the former leader of Fatah’s paramilitary faction, called the “Mandela of Palestine.” Barghouti has received the greatest measure of support in all surveys conducted over the past decades and is seen as someone who can unite all Palestinians. But he has been imprisoned in Israel for more than 20 years, serving several life sentences after being convicted of masterminding suicide bombings in Israel. The Israelis have zero incentive to release him.

Mohammed Dahlan, the former leader of Fatah in Gaza, is also on the radar. Dahlan has been living in exile in the UAE for the past 10 years, where he has become a successful businessman. Born in Gaza, he is a powerful financial force in Gaza and an influential figure in the wider region. Another figure is Nasser al-Kidwa, Arafat's nephew, who has served in several official positions in the past, including Palestinian ambassador to the UN and foreign minister.

And therein lies the problem. These men have the nostalgia of a classic vinyl record. They were chart-toppers of a bygone era, yet they are septuagenarians today. The playlist needs refreshing.

The U.S. favors former Prime Minister and Finance Minister Salam Fayyad or Mohammad Mustafa, Chairman of the Palestine Investment Fund. Both are capable and respected technocrats, but neither enjoys any significant level of support among Palestinians.

“I don't think the Biden administration has internalized yet what a major overhaul the system needs,” al-Omari says. “And yes, that includes new faces. People who are not tainted by the failures of the past. But you also need a major political overhaul of that system.”

That kind of systematic overhaul doesn’t happen without direct US presidential engagement, the kind President George W. Bush used to drive Palestinian reforms in 2002. Al-Omari, who worked for then-Finance Minister Fayyad, remembers being “grilled by Bush regularly” at the White House about the progress of their reform efforts.

Elliot Abrams, Bush’s deputy national security advisor, said the Arafat-era reforms, which led to the sidelining of Arafat and the appointment of Fayyad as finance minister “came straight from the top, from President Bush.

“Only his involvement and pressure made them possible and made them work. That level of engagement will be critical now as well,” Abrams said. The Palestinians, he added, “will resist reform, and if the pressure isn’t coming from the President, change won't happen.”

With the U.S. presidential election on the horizon, it remains uncertain whether President Biden is prepared to commit to this level of personal involvement. The fact Washington is still playing musical chairs with the P.A. suggests he is not ready to get his hands dirty.

There is no lack of Palestinian talent to serve in government and no shortage of U.S. programs to teach good governance. In Afghanistan, the U.S. was adept at nurturing the next generation through Fulbright programs, scholarships to U.S. military and business schools.

A prime example is General Khoshal Sadat, whose rise was facilitated by American training and education before he served as a top aide to Generals Stanley McChrystal and David Petraeus, both commanders of U.S. and ISAF forces in Afghanistan. He then went on to serve as deputy minister in the interior ministry and intelligence directorate before the country fell to the Taliban in 2021.

“Every aspect of Afghan government and society: The military, intelligence, and police were given an opportunity to be educated in the West and see how to develop a new generation of leaders,” Sadat recalls. “It was a large investment the US made in Afghanistan and created this system where it led to positive change.”

Sadat and a group of young Afghan leaders have created the Afghanistan United Front, a group planning for a post-Taliban Afghanistan. The future is unclear, but he credits his American mentors with teaching him the tools needed to lead when the time comes.

“Even traditional Afghans respect us when they know we are trained and educated in the West, where you learn to communicate and be honest, technical, and dynamic,” he said. “This is a new brand of Afghans and a new generation for the future.”

Sadat’s story, captured in a New York Times profile and episode of The Daily, reads like a screenplay – from American training to top military roles, and now, a key player orchestrating a future post-Taliban act. Now, it’s time for a new script in Palestinian politics, one that involves a major system reboot, a fresh cast, and perhaps, a plot twist or two.

Abrams suggests the Biden administration should start now, with Fayyad helping to nurture a new generation of “totally new faces.”

“The administration should be asking Fayyad right now to identify a group of younger, capable, honest Palestinians,” he says. “I don’t think bureaucratic reforms will happen unless there are new people at the top.”

Axios’s Barak Ravid has a great scoop about a recent phone call between Biden and Netanyahu in which the president said he doesn’t have an appetite for the war to drag on for a year. It’s the first clear indication Biden realizes his election chances could be hurt by the war in Gaza, especially among young voters.

Arab diplomats agree a combination of fresh faces, structural changes, and sustained high-level U.S. engagement is needed to establish a Palestinian government as a prerequisite for a two-state solution. So, is an end, they say, to dithering by Washington.

"I feel like we are just dancing around the corners with zero evidence of anything being done,” one Arab diplomat puts it bluntly. “We are all ready to go, so let’s go.”