Whatever resolution, equilibrium, accommodation, or standoff—it won’t be an agreement—finally comes to pass with regard to Iran and its proxies will need China’s assent, more so than the approval of the US or anyone else. China might set the broad terms.
Israel might seem, and might actually be, more secure for a while, but Israel has spoiled its long term prospects for peace and security in ways that will haunt Israel for another seventy-five years. It’s heartbreaking how ephemeral will be the safety Israel has purchased with the blood of Gazan, Iranian, and Lebanese civilians. I say that as a still-stubborn supporter of Israel’s right to live in peace in a Jewish homeland, as someone who supports Israel’s right to respond with reasonable force in response to the horrors of Oct 7, as someone who does not in principle oppose preemptive force, and as someone who felt it not unjust that Gazans suffer for having installed and upheld Hamas. But Israel has gone too far and will suffer for it not unjustly.
"Whether this Lebanese government has the courage, capacity, and support to sustain that effort — not for ten days, but for the months and years it would take to actually change the facts on the ground — is the only question that matters."
I am thankful that Iran has been weakened. I think we know the answer to the question you pose: we are not anywhere near a tipping point. The "good guys" in Lebanon, which I agree are Hezbollah's enemies, are equally fearful of Israel.
I did get some clarity from your excellent piece. You reminded me of realities in Lebanon that I half-remember.
I'm not one who thinks that brute force can not work to bring positive change. There are examples of countries losing wars and transforming. I would even say Iraq has been transformed for the better by the Gulf Wars - at an exorbitant cost. I think the current war effort has not accounted for the level of fighting required to topple Iran and its proxies. Almost nobody is signed on to such an effort. It's just a grass mowing that Trump was lured into.
Ms Labott, your reporting makes it that much more necessary for the United States to require Iran to surrender. That way Hezzbohla will die on the vine. Take care.
Forcing Iran to surrender would require a ground invasion. I see no willingness for that effort. There has been talk of a sort of "invasion lite" whereby islands in the gulf are held. I don't think surrender will happen from economic pressure.
Thank you so much Elise. This was very good. You have such a brilliant perspective on this.
Great read Elise xoxo
Thanks lady - excited for your Substack and tales of lore! xxx
Great piece.
Did you mention China?
Whatever resolution, equilibrium, accommodation, or standoff—it won’t be an agreement—finally comes to pass with regard to Iran and its proxies will need China’s assent, more so than the approval of the US or anyone else. China might set the broad terms.
Israel might seem, and might actually be, more secure for a while, but Israel has spoiled its long term prospects for peace and security in ways that will haunt Israel for another seventy-five years. It’s heartbreaking how ephemeral will be the safety Israel has purchased with the blood of Gazan, Iranian, and Lebanese civilians. I say that as a still-stubborn supporter of Israel’s right to live in peace in a Jewish homeland, as someone who supports Israel’s right to respond with reasonable force in response to the horrors of Oct 7, as someone who does not in principle oppose preemptive force, and as someone who felt it not unjust that Gazans suffer for having installed and upheld Hamas. But Israel has gone too far and will suffer for it not unjustly.
Maybe for the broader Iran deal, but not Israel-Lebanon
"Whether this Lebanese government has the courage, capacity, and support to sustain that effort — not for ten days, but for the months and years it would take to actually change the facts on the ground — is the only question that matters."
I am thankful that Iran has been weakened. I think we know the answer to the question you pose: we are not anywhere near a tipping point. The "good guys" in Lebanon, which I agree are Hezbollah's enemies, are equally fearful of Israel.
I did get some clarity from your excellent piece. You reminded me of realities in Lebanon that I half-remember.
I'm not one who thinks that brute force can not work to bring positive change. There are examples of countries losing wars and transforming. I would even say Iraq has been transformed for the better by the Gulf Wars - at an exorbitant cost. I think the current war effort has not accounted for the level of fighting required to topple Iran and its proxies. Almost nobody is signed on to such an effort. It's just a grass mowing that Trump was lured into.
I would love to buy someone else a subscription. If there was a one time donation option, I would happily contribute.
Ms Labott, your reporting makes it that much more necessary for the United States to require Iran to surrender. That way Hezzbohla will die on the vine. Take care.
Forcing Iran to surrender would require a ground invasion. I see no willingness for that effort. There has been talk of a sort of "invasion lite" whereby islands in the gulf are held. I don't think surrender will happen from economic pressure.
As if…