If you missed my conversation with former Undersecretary Tom Shannon, here’s the recording. It’s essential viewing for anyone trying to make sense of President Trump’s strategy for the Western Hemisphere. Tom’s insights come from decades serving at the highest levels of government on regional issues in both Republican and Democratic administrations.
Tom sees Trump’s second-term foreign policy as an explicit shift from values-based alliance management to transactional “ownership” politics driven by threats and pressure. He warns the blowback could be strategic isolation. Trump’s approach is a coherent “power-and-assets” strategy - one that trades away legitimacy, alliances, and long-term U.S. influence for short-term gains. Everything Trump is doing in the region and beyond - Venezuela, Colombia, Canada, Mexico, Greenland, NATO - shows that coercion may yield short-term concessions but ultimately weakens America’s global position.
Tom summed up his core thesis in one line I’ll be borrowing repeatedly:
Power without principle is a weak vessel.
Based on Trump’s remarks today during his two-hour press conference (if we can call it that), I predict we’ll see a deal with NATO on Greenland coming out of Davos this week - something short of outright American “ownership,” but one that allows Trump to claim victory. Trump will frame it as having focused NATO and Europe on the Arctic’s importance and securing agreement to move faster on boosting Greenland’s defenses against Russia and China.
One could argue that’s what he was trying to do all along, just very badly. But given the way markets are turning, and the pushback from Europe and Republicans in Congress, I think Trump will be looking to pivot away from Greenland soon.
I’ll write more later today after Trump’s speech at Davos.
Thank you Donna Carrillo Lopez, Kimberly Briedis, Joseph Tucker, Marnie, Sloane, and many others for tuning into my live video with Tom Shannon! Join me for my next live video in the app.
